The evidence so far
Your selected forecast
A fair comparison
Current process versus frozen candidate on exactly the same completed forecast dates. No comparison is shown until both have verified outcomes.
Probability calibration
For the current process: how often prices actually rose within each predicted-probability band. Small groups are not dependable calibration evidence.
Seven-day score trend
Current-process Brier score by outcome date, covering the preceding seven days. Lower is better. These rolling windows overlap.
Recent prediction records for this selection
Latest 10 matching records from the report's 80 most recent issues. No repeated four-hour forecasts.
All monitored forecasts
Each asset, quote pair and horizon is assessed separately. Non-overlapping windows are not proof of statistical independence.
| Asset / pair | Horizon | Completed | Pending | Unverified | Excluded | Non-overlap | Brier | 80% coverage | Review status |
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Method & limitations
This dashboard cannot authorize live trading. Evidence volume, comparison scores, costs, drawdowns and operational controls still require human review. Virtual-wallet performance is measured separately.